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Nov 3, 2012
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here's how i use the reports we constantly refer to. first i assess them for the predicted value for the year. to do that i try to discern where analysts go with their estimates after the company's reports do. they raise them, lower them, keep them the same? let's say apple is using a report that is better than not only the posted numbers that you can find on a lot of websites but also beats the high man. some call it the whisper. the high man. the analyst with the most aggressively high estimates on the street. that will always cause a raising of the numbers for the rest of the year by everyone. if it is the end of the year for the numbers after that. i use that increase in earnings per share to try to figure out the increases from real business, actual sales. did they do better. not just the changes and share changes. i look more at the revenues than the actual earnings themselves. why is that important? a company can't change the sales line except by increasing demand, producing more, gaining more customers either at the expense of o
here's how i use the reports we constantly refer to. first i assess them for the predicted value for the year. to do that i try to discern where analysts go with their estimates after the company's reports do. they raise them, lower them, keep them the same? let's say apple is using a report that is better than not only the posted numbers that you can find on a lot of websites but also beats the high man. some call it the whisper. the high man. the analyst with the most aggressively high...
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Nov 12, 2012
11/12
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dominic is still with us. i suppose the question is what we've sort of global equities have priced in in terms of a scenario for the fiscal cliff. what do you think it is? >> i think markets have been sanguine about the whole issue and it's only after the election that we began to see nervousness. and i still think the likely outcome is the market will have to put further pressure on both sides before a deal is finally done. and i actually don't think we'll good a deal done this side of the new year. >> you yu don't? >> no, i don't. because the republicans have put themselves in a difficult position because they've actually said no way that they will endorse tax hikes. if they allow the tax increases to automatically go through on the 31st, they can then talk about tax cuts for the middle classes in january. it's cynical, but it may be what actually happens. >> so what happens on that? because there are some saying u.s. equitieses have already priced in the fiscal cliff and they look at it as a measuring of eq
dominic is still with us. i suppose the question is what we've sort of global equities have priced in in terms of a scenario for the fiscal cliff. what do you think it is? >> i think markets have been sanguine about the whole issue and it's only after the election that we began to see nervousness. and i still think the likely outcome is the market will have to put further pressure on both sides before a deal is finally done. and i actually don't think we'll good a deal done this side of...
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Nov 26, 2012
11/12
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jim dunagan joins us. that number that i gist quoted, how does that compare to last year's costs of buying all the items? >> for the true cost of christmas, we're up 4.8% this year and if you bought all of the items, 6.1%. >> what's been driving the rise? cost of food and feeding geese? >> culprits were the six geese and the seven swans a swimming were up the most, and that was due to the drought we had in the united states that pushed up feed prices and also energy. and gold rings were up 16% this year. >> is there anything in there that has actually got cheaper over the year? >> this is one year that in fact nothing has gone down this year. so we had six items which were flat, but the balance were all up. good news is that the maids a milking were flat as were the ladies dancing and lords of leaping all saw no increase this year. >> does that reflect the fact that wages haven't really done enough? flat wages? >> if we look at the overall wages in the index, they're bup 1.7%. drummers and pipers went up 5
jim dunagan joins us. that number that i gist quoted, how does that compare to last year's costs of buying all the items? >> for the true cost of christmas, we're up 4.8% this year and if you bought all of the items, 6.1%. >> what's been driving the rise? cost of food and feeding geese? >> culprits were the six geese and the seven swans a swimming were up the most, and that was due to the drought we had in the united states that pushed up feed prices and also energy. and gold...
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Nov 13, 2012
11/12
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justin, thanks for joining us. first of all, this little spat on the two year extension, how much >> of course they're politicians and in jean claude's own words, different circumstances. they have to get reelected. christine lagarde is head of the imf and the imf needs to get the problem sorted out as quickly as possible regardless of political concerns. so you can see which way they're coming from here. as i say, the mnumber 120% is plucked out of the air. there already appears differences over what the current 2020 is, some are saying 14 #%. but reporting that some of the troy came members are saying this, others saying between 140 and 150. of course they do rely on quite a lot of assumptions about gross tax receipts and spending cuts. >> with a matters isn't the 2020 versus 2022 language. what they're implying is whether the official sector has to take. yesterday we heard smaghi say he thinks a maturity extension will happen. so is that going to extend to the official sector and does it have to in your view? >>
justin, thanks for joining us. first of all, this little spat on the two year extension, how much >> of course they're politicians and in jean claude's own words, different circumstances. they have to get reelected. christine lagarde is head of the imf and the imf needs to get the problem sorted out as quickly as possible regardless of political concerns. so you can see which way they're coming from here. as i say, the mnumber 120% is plucked out of the air. there already appears...
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Nov 27, 2012
11/12
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what about taking some pressure off us? we have a massive debt burden, we really need some compensation here, as well. but it's worth taking a step back even from that and saying the germans and other surface running countries in europe always did have the opportunity to bail out the deficit countries, but almost the obligation. that's what happens if you create a united states of europe. just like alabama was bailed out by new york state or whatever it is. >> i think you were struggling to find a strong state there for a second. >> was a little bit. so the actual transfers aren't necessarily the problem. the problems are two fold. the first as you alluded to is the internal competitiveness of particularly the peripheral countries. when they joined the euro, they took advantage of the low borrowing costs to borrow and spend up a storm, public sector wages went up. and they become dramatically uncompetitive. and the easy way is to leave the euro. the painful way is to stay. so the other thing to bear in mind is the banks. ba
what about taking some pressure off us? we have a massive debt burden, we really need some compensation here, as well. but it's worth taking a step back even from that and saying the germans and other surface running countries in europe always did have the opportunity to bail out the deficit countries, but almost the obligation. that's what happens if you create a united states of europe. just like alabama was bailed out by new york state or whatever it is. >> i think you were struggling...
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Nov 21, 2012
11/12
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thank you for joining us. the central bank has been criticized by some for not cutting sooner and more aggressively. and the key policy rate still sits at 4.5% with growth coming down so rapidly, shouldn't the bank be moving more quickly. >> well, of course, i can talk about myself and my own views, and i think that we are trying still to continue saying normal monetary policy, and when i look around in europe, especially western europe, i don't see many similar cases. that does not necessarily mean that we are wrong. >> who are you more critical of, the bank of england with its qe policy, or the ecb, which has been r been resistant on moving more quickly? >> i would put more criticism on the bank of england or the fed. in any case, i would agree with what a german philosopher once wrote in 2009 that would resolve around policies that it is a kind of a robbery of the future by the present. we are trying to avoid that. to an extent, it is possible for a small open economy. >> all well and good academically, but
thank you for joining us. the central bank has been criticized by some for not cutting sooner and more aggressively. and the key policy rate still sits at 4.5% with growth coming down so rapidly, shouldn't the bank be moving more quickly. >> well, of course, i can talk about myself and my own views, and i think that we are trying still to continue saying normal monetary policy, and when i look around in europe, especially western europe, i don't see many similar cases. that does not...